Inflation was over 10% last autumn.
Incorrect. CPI inflation, the measure used by the Bank of England in its target, was between 6.7% and 3.9% in autumn 2023. It was last over 10% in March 2023, though it was consistently over 10% throughout autumn 2022.
Inflation, which was up at over 10% last autumn, is now back to target.
In the House of Commons earlier this week, during a debate on the King’s Speech that focused on the economy, shadow work and pensions secretary Mel Stride MP said inflation was “over 10% last autumn”. The claim was detected by Full Fact’s AI tools.
While it is true that CPI inflation for June 2024, the most recent month we have data for, was 2%—meeting the Bank of England's target—it was not over 10% in autumn 2023.
CPI inflation is the main way prices of things consumed by private households is measured, and is the measure the Bank of England uses for the 2% target.
According to Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures, CPI inflation was 6.7% in September 2023, 4.6% in October 2023, 3.9% in November 2023 and 4.0% in December 2023. It was last over 10% in March 2023.
It’s likely that Mr Stride intended to refer to autumn 2022, rather than “last autumn”. In autumn 2022, inflation was consistently over 10%. It was 10.1% in September 2022 before peaking at 11.1% in October 2022. It then fell slightly to 10.7% in November 2022, and was 10.5% in December 2022.
We have written to Mr Stride to ask if he meant to refer to autumn 2022. We will update this article if he responds.
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