What was claimed
Figures from an Election Maps UK projection show only the Greens can stop Reform UK in the Gorton and Denton by-election.
Our verdict
This is misleading. The most recent projection from Election Maps UK for Gorton and Denton suggests the Greens will see the second largest increase in vote share compared to the 2024 election, behind Reform UK. But it also suggests that Labour will still hold the seat.
A post shared by the Green Party and its leader Zack Polanski on social media claims that “latest polling” shows that “only the Greens can stop Reform” in the upcoming Gorton and Denton by-election, which is likely to be held on 26 February.
The post, shared on Instagram and X, explicitly links this claim to a bar chart which shows Reform UK at “+12%”, followed by the Green Party at “+11%” and Labour at “-20%”.
These figures feature rounding errors, and show one model’s projected change in vote share compared to the 2024 general election. It’s misleading to suggest that this model shows “only the Greens can stop Reform” however, or to quote only its change in vote share figures, because its figures for actual projected vote share at the time the post was shared show Labour winning and the Greens coming in third.
A version of the post also appeared on a banner at a Green Party event in Gorton and Denton on Monday.
Of course, we’ve no way of verifying the accuracy of any given election model, and at least one other projection does show the Greens leading in this seat. But the claim that “only the Greens can stop Reform” is not supported overall by the modelling cited in the Green Party graphic.
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The figures in the bar chart are based on modelling by Election Maps UK showing the projected vote share change in Gorton and Denton compared to the 2024 General Election.
The chart lists the figures as percentages—but it’s worth being clear that they’re actually percentage point changes.
The chart also rounds down the projected vote share change for both Reform UK and Labour, to +12 and -20 respectively, rather than rounding them to the nearest whole number.
In fact, Election Maps UK currently projects the vote share change for Reform as +12.8 and for Labour as -20.9. The Green Party’s projected vote share change is correctly shown on the bar chart as +11.
Political parties sharing bar charts which don’t quite give the full picture are nothing new, and we’ve written about them at length before.
The figures in the Green Party’s bar chart show the change in how each party is projected to perform compared to the last election, according to Election Maps UK. They don’t show what the actual result will be, or even what it is projected to be.
In fact, Election Maps UK projects that although Labour’s vote share will decrease by almost 21 percentage points, this would still be enough for it to retain the seat.
Its latest figures project that Labour will win 29.8% of the vote, with Reform UK in second on 26.9% and the Green Party in third on 24.1%.
So while these figures project that the Greens could see a similar increase in vote share to Reform UK, they don’t show that they are the only party that can beat them.
It’s worth noting that a different model, published by Electoral Calculus, does project that the Green Party is likely to win the by-election, with Labour coming second.
The Green Party told us that figures referenced in the chart showed “the situation before [Greater Manchester mayor] Andy Burnham was barred from standing” and claimed that “since then the downwards support for Labour has only increased further”.
It also noted media reports claiming that senior Labour figures are expecting to lose the by-election, and told us: “We do not therefore believe that the chart or the message is in any way misleading—it is clear that only the Greens can stop Reform.”
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