Welfare payments have not exceeded income tax ‘for the first time ever’

An “Alternative King’s Speech” published by the Conservatives on Monday (11 May) claimed: “For the first time ever, the total welfare bill is now higher than total receipts from income tax.”

This is a claim we’ve heard a few times in recent weeks from politicians and in the media. But it’s not true.

Total welfare spending was higher than income tax receipts in 2025/26, according to figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), but this is far from the first time that’s happened.

According to Full Fact’s research with historic OBR documents, welfare spending—which includes state pensions as well as universal credit and other benefits—has been higher than income tax receipts every year for at least the last 13 years. Indeed the gap narrowed significantly in 2025/26, and the positions are set to reverse next year—meaning this year is expected to be the last for the foreseeable future that welfare is higher than income tax in the UK, not the first.

We shared our figures with the Institute for Fiscal Studies, which looked at the question independently and agreed with us.

“It looks like welfare spending has been higher than income tax receipts for all of the last 13 years,” Tom Waters, an associate director and head of the income, work and welfare sector, told us. “In fact what's changing is that welfare spending is forecast to be lower than income tax receipts in 2026/27 for the first time since at least 2013/14, and then remain that way until the end of the forecast period in 2030/31.”

We’re not sure where this claim came from. The Telegraph published an article comparing income tax and welfare spending on 4 April, but it did not claim welfare was higher for the first time.

This element appeared in a video featuring the LBC presenter Iain Dale two days later. His post on X was then shared by a number of Conservative politicians, including the shadow work and pensions secretary Helen Whateley, and the Conservative MP Rebecca Smith. The Conservative MP Dr Luke Evans made the same claim in an article on his website on 8 April, as did the party leader, Kemi Badenoch, at Prime Minister’s Questions on 29 April.

Separately, we saw the same claim made by the Reform MP Robert Jenrick on Facebook. And a similar claim appeared in a City AM article, which was corrected after we got in touch.

It’s important to remember that many working people receive benefits, and many people who are not working, including pensioners, pay income tax. Working people pay National Insurance too. So the welfare and income tax figures do not simply show how much the government spends on people who are out of work, or receives from people who are working.

We’ve asked the Conservatives, Mr Jenrick and LBC about this claim, but none has responded at the time of publication.