What was claimed
By the end of this decade, we could be spending more on incapacity and disability benefits than on defence.
Our verdict
This is true, but it’s also already the case that the UK spends more on health and disability benefits than it does on defence.
In a widely-reported article published on his Institute for Global Change’s website former Prime Minister Sir Tony Blair claimed that “by the end of this decade, we could be spending more on incapacity and disability benefits than on defence.”
This is correct, but missing important context: it is already the case that the UK spends more on health and disability benefits than defence.
Sir Tony made similar comments on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, saying: “You can’t carry on with a situation where you are going to end up, if you’re not careful, spending more on incapacity and disability benefits than you are on defence.” His claim was also widely reported in the media, and we’re grateful to the Guardian for clarifying this point in its article after we got in touch.
According to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), in the most recent financial year (2025/26) the UK is forecast to have spent £83.4 billion on health and disability benefits. Planned defence spending as set out in the government’s Spending Review for the same year was £62.2 billion.
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The government has set out spending plans up to 2028/29, by which point defence spending is expected to be £73.5 billion. By comparison the OBR forecasts that health and disability spending will reach £99.6 billion in 2028/29.
https://app.flourish.studio/visualisation/29146230/edit
The same is true when looking specifically at working age health and disability benefits (excluding spending on children and pensioners). The OBR forecast working age health and disability benefits spending of £62.7 billion in 2025/26, increasing to £74.9 billion in 2028/29—both slightly higher than defence spending in these years.
Health and disability spending is forecast to increase by approximately 19.4% over this period—a little bit more than defence spending (18.2%).
In February it was reported that the government was considering bringing forward plans to increase defence spending to 3% of GDP by the end of the current parliament, (which is due to be in summer 2029 at the latest). The Institute for Fiscal Studies has reportedly estimated this would cost an additional £13-14 billion per year. No plans for this have been formally set out, however.
We’ve contacted the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change for comment and will update this article if we receive a response.
Update 28 May 2026
We’ve updated this article to reflect a clarification made by the Guardian after this fact check was published.
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