What does the pledge mean?

The British model of policing asserts that the power of the police to execute their duties depends on the common consent of the public, a concept known as “policing by consent”. For policing by consent to be effective, the police require the trust and confidence of the public.

However, the proportion of people who consider that the police are doing a good or excellent job has been on a downward trend in recent years, with the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) tracking a fall from 62% in 2017 to 51% in 2023.

High profile events, such as the murder of Sarah Everard by Wayne Couzens, an officer with the Metropolitan Police, are likely to have contributed to this trend. The force itself said that as a result of this case: “All officers must and will now expect to work harder to gain the confidence of the public.”

Confidence levels may vary depending on ethnicity, gender and other factors, such as whether the person in question has been a victim of crime. Confidence levels may also vary between the 43 police forces in England and Wales. 

Various surveys provide information about public confidence in the police. For example the CSEW examines confidence levels in local forces, and the Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC) carries out an annual survey. There’s also a more frequent measure in the monthly YouGov survey, which gives a percentage of members of the public who believe the police are doing a good job. 

However we don’t know what measure the government intends to use to monitor progress under this pledge, which means we also can’t say how much improvement is needed for confidence to reach its “highest levels” (which we assume means its highest-ever level). We asked the Home Office about this in late October 2024, and followed up in November 2024, but didn’t get a response.

We also don’t know what timescale applies to the pledge—ie, by when the government hopes to have increased confidence to the “highest levels”. 

Although the government has not said so explicitly, it is likely that this pledge is intended to apply only to England and Wales. That’s because policing is devolved in Scotland and Northern Ireland, so any initiatives introduced to boost levels of confidence in England and Wales may not be applied elsewhere. 

What progress has been made?

On 19 November 2024, the home secretary Yvette Cooper announced a series of reforms to policing, centred around the launch of a new government unit aimed at improving performance and keeping the streets safe. 

According to the Home Office, the unit will use national data to monitor performance and direct improvements “to ensure communities can have confidence in their local police force”.

Ms Cooper said: “We have a huge opportunity ahead of us to reset the relationship between government and the police, to regain the trust and support of the people we all serve and to reinvigorate the best of British policing. Strong and consistent performance is critical to commanding public confidence.”

Other measures to boost public confidence in policing are likely to feature as part of the Crime and Policing Bill, which was announced in the King’s Speech but has yet to be published. Notes accompanying the speech say the Bill will “deliver higher policing standards” but again provide little detail on how confidence will be measured. 

Of the various available measures of confidence, neither the IOPC survey nor the CSEW yet provide  data for the period since Labour was elected in July.

The most recent statistics from the monthly YouGov survey (which covers England, Wales and Scotland) show that the proportion of members of the public who believe the police are doing a good job has risen from 47% around the time of the election to 55% in November 2024. It’s not yet clear, however, whether this is the start of a broader upward trend, and it’s also substantially lower than the scores of above 70% seen in 2019 and 2020.