Four claims about GP numbers fact checked

On Tuesday, the government announced a new plan to change the way that people access healthcare through GPs and pharmacists.

The launch of the plan was accompanied by a series of claims about the size of the GP workforce, with some saying that the number of GPs is rising, and others that the number is falling. 

We’ve fact checked four of the claims we’ve seen from politicians and in the media below. We’ve also written about this topic previously. 

It is important that politicians and others use data accurately and transparently, and explain any necessary context when making claims. Statistics on their own have limitations. The way they are presented is a crucial part of how they are interpreted and understood by the public. If data is presented without context or caveats, it can give an incomplete or misleading picture.

“There are almost 2,000 more doctors working in general practice than in 2019.”

A key claim from the government has been that the number of doctors in general practice is higher than in 2019.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak told reporters on Tuesday 9 May: “Right now, there are almost 2,000 more doctors working in general practice than in 2019.”

On the morning media round, health minister Neil O’Brien told the BBC’s Today programme (2:12:40): “We have got about 2,000 more doctors working in general practice than we did in 2019.” And he told GB News: “We have nearly 2,000 more GPs than we did in 2019.”

As we’ve written before, there are lots of different ways to count the number of GPs, or “doctors in general practice”—the figures depend on whether you look at headcount or full-time equivalent (FTE) roles, and whether you include GP trainees. 

If you look at the total number of FTE GPs including trainees, then Mr Sunak’s and Mr O’Brien’s headline figure for doctors working in general practice in England is correct according to NHS Digital’s figures—the number rose from about 34,520 in December 2019 to around 36,430 in March 2023, an increase of 1,910.

However, this increase has been fuelled by a sharp rise in the number of trainees. In December 2019, some 6,390 of the total number of FTE roles were GP trainees, and this climbed to 9,120 in March 2023, an increase of about 2,730.

Some health experts, including the Royal College of GPs (RCGP), advise against including trainees when counting the total number of GPs, as trainees are expected to have dedicated education time and may carry out fewer and longer appointments than a qualified colleague. These appointments may also be supervised by fully qualified GPs, who will then not be able to see as many patients themselves.

Mr Sunak was careful to refer to “doctors in general practice” rather than GPs, as was Mr O’Brien when speaking to the Today programme, and this is generally the terminology ministers have used in recent months, to allow for the fact that the figures include trainees. But speaking to GB News Mr O’Brien said “nearly 2,000 more GPs”, which could be confusing, as trainees are not fully qualified general practitioners.  

When we last wrote about this topic back in March, the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) told us that trainee GPs are fully qualified doctors that deliver direct patient care while being supervised, and that they can help to ease workloads and deliver more appointments.

“In 2019 we were promised 6,000 extra GPs—[there are] now 825 GPs less at full time.”

A different picture of the GP workforce was given on BBC Breakfast in an interview with the programme’s resident GP, Dr Nighat Arif. Dr Arif claimed that the number of full-time GPs has fallen by 825 since the government made its manifesto pledge in 2019 to increase the number of doctors in general practice by 6,000 by the end of the parliament.

Dr Arif did not specify exactly which measure she was referring to, or which dates, but it appears she was referring to the number of FTE GPs excluding trainees. NHS Digital’s most recent general practice workforce data shows that the number of FTE fully qualified GPs fell from 28,129 in December 2019 to 27,306 in March 2023, a drop of 823.

As outlined above, the RCGP and some other health experts have argued this is a more reliable measure for GP numbers than the figure quoted by the government which also includes trainees.

The Health Foundation, which has published its own analysis of GP workforce data, argues that “the best measure of GP workforce capacity” is the number of FTE fully qualified permanent GPs—i.e., discounting locums as well as trainees. It argues this is because locums, while fully qualified, often cover for other GPs who are absent due to sickness or maternity leave. 

If you look just at FTE fully qualified permanent GPs—ie, excluding trainees and locums—the data shows there were 26,665 in March 2023, down from 27,124 reported in December 2019 and 28,680 in March 2016 (the highest point in the data which goes back to 2015).

“13 years of Conservative failure has seen… 2,000 GPs cut.”

In comments widely reported in the media, Labour’s shadow health secretary Wes Streeting claimed that the government has cut “2,000 GPs”. 

One of Labour’s press releases (not published online) linked the change in GP numbers to “13 years of Conservative failure”, suggesting it was a drop since 2010, while during a debate in Parliament Mr Streeting explicitly talked about “the 2,000 GPs cut since 2015”. 

Labour has since confirmed with Full Fact that the intended comparison was with 2015. We’ve not been able to find reliable data on how current GP numbers compare with 13 years ago, because the data for 2010 was collected differently and so may not be comparable with the latest figures.

Labour said that the figure of 2,000 was reached by comparing the number of FTE fully-qualified GPs (i.e., excluding trainees) in March 2023 with the number in September 2015, when the current data set begins.

It’s true that there were 27,306 of these GPs in England in March 2023, which is roughly 2,000 less than the 29,364 in September 2015. However if you include trainee GPs, the total now is about 2,000 higher than it was in September 2015.

“We have 4,000 doctors training in primary care, compared with 2,600 in 2014.”

Health secretary Steve Barclay told the House of Commons that “there are also more doctors in training: 4,000 are receiving training in primary care, as opposed to 2,600 in 2014”, and “we have 4,000 doctors training in primary care, compared with 2,600 in 2014”.

This isn’t quite right. Health Education England (HEE) figures from last November do show that the number of new GP trainees accepting placements in England rose from 2,671 in 2014 to 4,032 in 2022. But these figures are for the number of doctors beginning GP training in a given year, not the total number of doctors in GP training or the total number of trainees on GP placements at any one time.

(This distinction appeared to be acknowledged by Mr Barclay elsewhere in the debate when he said: “In 2021, we hit our target of 4,000 people accepting GP training places.”)

GP speciality training in England typically lasts for three years, and consists of a year of hospital-based training rotations and two years in general practice.

NHS Digital monthly data shows there were around 9,120 FTE GPs in training grade working as of the end of March 2023. However this undercounts the total number of doctors in GP training in England because it does not include those working elsewhere that month—for example, those on hospital rotations. When we asked HEE about this in March, it told us there were a total of 13,847 GP trainees by headcount on the programme.

Full disclosure: The Health Foundation has funded Full Fact's health fact checking since January 2023. We disclose all funding we receive over £5,000 and you can see these figures here. (The page is updated annually.) Full Fact has full editorial independence in determining topics to review for fact checking and the conclusions of our analysis.

Image courtesy of Hush Naidoo Jade Photography.