Are the Conservatives or Labour responsible for the fall in net migration?

During a BBC debate ahead of the Makerfield by-election earlier this week, the Conservative candidate Michael Winstanley and the Labour and Co-operative candidate (and Mayor of Greater Manchester) Andy Burnham made seemingly contrasting claims about migration figures.

Mr Burnham said the Labour government “has cut net migration by 80%”. But this is not quite right.

Net migration fell by an estimated 82% between its peak in the year ending March 2023 and the year ending December 2025 (the year covered by the most recent available figures). The estimated fall since the year ending June 2024, just before Labour took office, is 74%, and experts say this may be due to policies enacted under the Conservatives as well as under Labour

Mr Burnham also challenged Mr Winstanley’s claim that the recent fall in “legal migration figures” is “due to the policies that were brought in under the tail end of the last Conservative government”.

What’s happened with net migration?

Since the UK formally left the EU it has been responsible for its own migration policies. After decreasing during the Covid-19 pandemic, net migration increased between 2021 and the year ending March 2023, when it reached a record high of 944,000.

It has fallen since, and the latest figures show net migration in the year ending December 2025 was 117,000—a fall of 82% compared to this peak. This figure has been referenced by the Prime Minister and the home secretary in recent weeks.

Labour entered government in July 2024. Between the years ending June 2024 and December 2025 net migration decreased by 74%.

So while most of the roughly 80% decrease from the peak has taken place under the current government, not all of it has, as Mr Burnham suggested.

Who’s responsible for the fall in net migration?

Both Mr Winstanley and Mr Burnham suggested their respective parties are responsible for the recent falls in migration. In reality the picture is a bit more complicated.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggests that policy changes introduced by both the previous Conservative and current Labour governments may have contributed to the decrease in immigration and net migration from its March 2023 peak.

The Conservatives introduced the initial immigration rules following the UK leaving the EU, as well as changes to these rules in the first half of 2024, such as an increase to the salary threshold for skilled workers and restrictions on most overseas students and care workers bringing dependents.

Last year, the ONS said the fall in immigration seen in the year ending June 2025 compared to the previous year “may be partly because of the immigration rule changes which occurred at the beginning of 2024”.

The Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford has also suggested that the fall in net migration was “largely driven by policies first introduced by the previous government”.

However Labour has also made its own changes to immigration rules since it took office. In July 2025, for example, it ended overseas recruitment for care workers and reduced the list of jobs eligible for Skilled Worker visa sponsorship. Other changes to immigration rules are expected in coming years.

Subsequently, in its latest release of migration figures, the ONS said: “The drop in total immigration in the latest year may be partly because of immigration rule changes, which were introduced in 2024 and 2025.” The Migration Observatory, meanwhile, has said “the full impact of some of Labour’s policies on migration still remains to be seen”, but also that the fall observed in net migration “results from the measures of both the current and the previous administrations”.

It’s worth noting that projections and forecasts published before Labour’s policy changes were set out and introduced were already indicating that net migration was likely to decrease from the very high levels seen in the past few years.