PM’s conference speech claim about ‘23% increase’ in immigration returns based on unpublished data

Just look at the difference you can make if you bring the curtain down on the show. A 23% increase in returns of people who have no right to be here, compared with last summer.

Discussing immigration in his speech at the Labour party conference on Tuesday, the Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said there has been a “23% increase in returns of people who have no right to be here”, compared with last summer. 

There is no published data to support this claim, which means we're unable to verify it. However Full Fact has confirmed that it’s based on as-yet-unpublished government immigration data (though the exact time frame the figure refers to is unclear).

Ministers and political leaders must provide evidence for what they say and it’s important that happens in this case. They should ensure that any statistics and data they rely on to back up their claims are provided publicly in accordance with the Code of Practice for Statistics or relevant guidance.

In a recent blog, the Office for Statistics Regulation said that it doesn’t actively monitor claims from politicians during party conference season, but added: “In instances where a statement makes specific reference to statistics which aren’t in the public domain, we would expect producers to follow our intelligent transparency guidance for responding to unplanned releases of data.”

That guidance recommends that “data to support any public statement should be published in advance or at the same time as the statement is made, with a clear explanation of strengths and limitations”. It adds: “Where unpublished data are referred to unexpectedly, the information should be published as soon as possible after any statement has been made – ideally on the same day.”

Full Fact has called for the Ministerial Code to be strengthened to make it clear that ministers should adhere to the principles of the Code of Practice for Statistics for any data they use to back up statements they make.

We’ve contacted Number 10 to ask whether the government plans to publish this data in line with the above guidance and have also asked the Labour party for comment. We will update this article if we receive any response.

What does the published data show?

The latest published data on immigration returns covers the period to the end of June 2024. So we don’t know how many returns have been made since Labour entered office, which appeared to be the comparison Mr Starmer was making, or what the figures for the whole summer show.

The data we do have shows that in the three months from April to June this year a total of 12,801 returns were made, of which 5,374 were voluntary returns, 1,821 enforced returns and 5,606 people refused entry to the UK at port. This figure is 3.7% higher than the number of returns made over the same period in 2023 (12,342).

We wrote more about how immigration returns are categorised earlier this year (though some of the figures mentioned in that article may be out of date).