An historically small budget deficit?

20 December 2010

"If the deficit is seen as a problem — it is not high by either historical or contemporary standards — a positive growth and tax-justice programme should be the main means of addressing it."
Len McCluskey, The Guardian, 20 December 2010

With the wintry weather dominating the headlines in most of this morning's papers, newly-elected Unite General Secretary Len McCluskey brought some old-fashioned union fire to Westminster village with an op-ed in the Guardian arguing that the unions "have to be preparing for battle" with the Government over the imminent cuts.  

Whilst this war-cry was met with a frosty response from Ed Miliband's team, it has given some festive cheer to others on the left.

But do the tenets of Mr McCluskey's argument that "there is no case for cuts at all" stand up or melt away under closer inspection?

Analysis

Full Fact took umbrage at one claim in particular: that the UK's budget deficit "is not high by either historical or contemporary standards."

As our recent report on the economy demonstrated, the UK's budget deficit stands at £106.5 billion as at the end of the last financial year. This is larger than at any point since the Second World War.

As a share of GDP, the historical comparisons made by the Unite General Secretary fare little better. At the end of the 2009-2010 financial year, the budget deficit stood at 7.6 per cent of GDP.

According to the Treasury's figures, this is also a record. Since 1972, the only time Britain has come close to having a comparable deficit was in 1992-1993 financial year, where the shortfall tipped the scales at 6.3 per cent of GDP.

It seems likely that Mr McCluskey has confused his debts with his deficits. The national debt — which currently stands at 53.6 per cent of GDP — is lower than it has been in the past. For example, in 1946 the national debt stood at approximately 238 per cent of GDP.

In order to bring this debt down to nearly 50 per cent of GDP by 1975, the post-war years were characterised by several budget surpluses, although deficits have since been accrued in the late 1970s and early 1990s in particular.

Conclusion

However none of these past deficits match the scale of the present one. Whilst the Treasury doesn't publish data for the war years, these would be an anomalous basis for the sort of comparison Mr McCluskey is making.

Whilst much of the expansion in Government borrowing in recent years can also be put down to exceptional economic circumstances, the size of this deficit is not disputable: it is larger in cash terms and as a share of GDP than anything in post-war history.

For more detail on economic claims, read our report: The Big Question: a Full Fact guide to the economy.

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