Post comparing the UK today to 2010 has a number of errors

Thousands of people have shared a Facebook post that compares the UK today to 2010.

The post lists 53 different claims about topics, such as housing, crime and the NHS. It has over 4,000 shares on Facebook and also appears on Twitter. 

Full Fact has not verified every single claim, but has identified several that are not correct or are misleading. 

Posts like this can spread very quickly and have the potential to affect how someone chooses to vote based on information that is exaggerated, misleading or incorrect. We have written many fact checks about online posts with political claims as part of our work against misinformation on social media. 

Homelessness

The post claims that “homelessness [is] up 1,000%” since 2010 but we have not been able to reproduce this figure using government data.  

Statutory homelessness describes someone who the local housing authority has deemed unintentionally homeless and in a priority need group, which makes them eligible for a main homelessness duty. This means it is the local authority’s duty to ensure that suitable accommodation is available for the applicant and their household.  

Temporary accommodation, such as B&Bs, hostels, council housing and private rentals,  may be provided while a permanent housing offer is being arranged. The duty is ongoing and so the authority must continue to provide temporary accommodation until the duty is brought to an end because either permanent accommodation has been secured or the applicant is no longer eligible. 

Between July and September 2010, 11,840 households were accepted for a main homelessness duty in England. For the same quarter in 2022, there were 12,330 households, which is a 4% increase since 2010. 

However, these figures do not include households that were found to be homeless but were not eligible for main duty due to either not being a priority need or being deemed intentionally homeless for reasons such as being evicted due to antisocial behaviour, leaving available and reasonable accommodation, neglecting personal finances or ignoring professional advice.

Between July and September 2010, a further 1,820 households were assessed as priority need but intentionally homeless and 5,250 households were accepted as homeless but not in priority need. In total, this is a further 7,070 homeless households that applied for main duty but were unsuccessful.

Figures for the same quarter in 2022 show 760 households were considered as priority need but intentionally homeless and 3,900 households were accepted as homeless but not in priority need. In total, this is a further 4,660 households. Taken together, there were 18,910 homeless households in this quarter in 2010, and 16,990 in 2022, which is a 10% decrease. 

However, the figures are not entirely comparable. The 2018 Homelessness Reduction Act (HRA) introduced prevention and relief duties as measures to take before a main homelessness duty would be issued. 

Prevention duties require local authorities to take action for households seriously threatened with homelessness. Relief duties require local authorities to take “reasonable steps” over a 56 day period “to help secure” temporary accommodation for households that are accepted as homeless. Unlike the main duty, the authority does not have to source and provide permanent accommodation directly, although they do have the “power to accommodate” people in some cases as considered a “reasonable step”. 

Since 2018 applicants have only been assessed for main duty if prevention and relief duties have not effectively secured permanent accommodation first. Those who are not eligible for main duty, but who are accepted as homeless—the figures outlined above—are eligible for relief duty. In the quarter ending September 2022, there were 38,190 homeless households who were owed a relief duty.

While there’s not a comparable figure for 2010, figures on temporary accommodation can be another useful way to look at overall homelessness numbers. Temporary accommodation figures can include households on either main or relief duties waiting to secure permanent accommodation, waiting for a decision on their application, pending a review or appeal and pending a possible referral to another local authority. 

In September 2010, 49,680 households were in temporary accommodation, compared to 99,270 households in September 2022, which is almost a 100% increase. Analysis published by Shelter in January 2023 found a 74% rise in temporary housing in the last 10 years and says that more than 68% of cases have been there for over a year.  

While it is difficult to say exactly how homelessness figures have changed since 2010, the 1,000% figure appears to be incorrect.

Rough sleeping

The post claimed that rough sleeping has increased by 1,200% but, again, this is not what government data shows.

People who are legally homeless are “rarely” on the streets, according to the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government. This means we don’t have definitive statistics for how many people are sleeping rough.

Rough sleeping refers to people sleeping outside or in places that aren’t designed for people to live, including cars, doorways and abandoned buildings. Using a snapshot method, councils count the number of people sleeping rough on a single night in autumn each year. 

Across England, there were 1,768 rough sleepers recorded on a single autumn night in 2010 and 3,069 in 2022—an increase of 74%, rather than 1,200% as claimed. This is particularly driven by a 107% increase in rough sleepers recorded in London over this period, compared to a 63% increase in the rest of England. Even at the peak number of rough sleepers recorded across England in 2017 (4,751 people), this is an increase of 169% compared to 2010, which is far below the 1,200% figure. 

The government website does list a range of factors that can affect the snapshot data, including the impact of the pandemic, weather, where people chose to sleep, the date and time chosen for the snapshot and the availability of night shelters. 

Data on rough sleeping in London is also collected by the Combined Homelessness and Information Network (CHAIN) using a different method. Groups including outreach teams, accommodation projects, day centres and specialist projects record the rough sleepers they meet on a shared database. 

According to CHAIN data, 3,975 people were seen rough sleeping in London in 2010/11 compared to 10,053 people in 2022/23, which is an increase of around 150%. This is down from a peak in 2020/21 when 11,018 people were recorded, which is around a 180% increase from 2010/11. 

Life expectancy

The post falsely claims that life expectancy today is “down 3 years” from 2010. The latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that life expectancy at birth for both males and females in the UK has increased slightly in the last decade.

Males born between 2008 and 2010 have a life expectancy of 78.01, which compares to 79.04 for males born between 2018 and 2020. Similarly, the life expectancy of females born between the same periods has increased from 82.08 to 82.86. So it is incorrect to say that life expectancy has decreased by three years.

While the latest life expectancy figures are higher than 2010, they have declined from a peak of 79.37 for males and 83.06 for females born between 2017 and 2019. 

Commenting on the decline, the ONS said: “The coronavirus pandemic led to a greater number of deaths than normal in 2020. [...] This is the first time we have seen a decline when comparing non-overlapping time periods since the series began in the early 1980s.

“These estimates rely on the assumption that current levels of mortality, which are unusually high, will continue for the rest of someone’s life. Once the coronavirus pandemic has ended and its consequences for future mortality are known, it is possible that life expectancy will return to an improving trend in the future.”

Value of the pound

Another claim on the list is that the “GPB [has] fallen by around 15% versus the EUR and USD”. It is true that the pound has fallen in value compared to the US dollar, but it is not true that it has fallen against the euro compared to2010.

For US dollars, the average exchange rate across 2010 was £1 to $1.55, and this fell to $1.24 in 2022. This is a 20% decline in value and marks the lowest rate in 12 years. So far, the average for 2023 is $1.23.  

For euros, the average exchange rate increased by 0.6% from £1 to €1.166 in 2010 to €1.173 in 2022. While the 2022 rate is marginally higher than for 2010, it is a 15% decline from 2015 where the value peaked at €1.38. The average for 2023 so far is  €1.14. 

Teachers

The post claims that there are 36,000 fewer teachers today, but data shows that the number of teachers has actually increased. 

In England, there were around 441,000 full-time equivalent (FTE) teachers across all state-funded schools and academies in November 2010. The latest figures at the time the post was published showed there were about 465,500 teachers in 2021. That’s an increase of around 24,000.

The figure in the post could have possibly come from data showing that around 36,000 FTE teachers left the profession in 2020/21, but this does not represent an overall decline because around 42,000 teachers also joined that year. The latest data for 2021/22 shows around 44,000 teachers left the industry and 48,000 entered.

However, the number of classroom teacher vacancies at state-funded schools has increased from 355 vacancies in 2010/11 to 2,120 in 2021/22, which is an increase of almost 500%. 

And, as we have written before, pupil numbers have increased at a faster rate than teacher numbers, meaning there are now fewer teachers per pupil than in 2010.

Hate crimes

The post claims that there has been an “increase of 50% in hate crimes”. As Full Fact has written before, there are two conflicting data sets on hate crimes in England and Wales, but neither show a 50% increase. 

The ONS commissions the official Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) which looks at the experiences of around 13,500 households over a whole year. The data from three consecutive CSEWs is used to estimate hate crime figures, which show that hate crimes have decreased 29% from 2009/10 to 2019/2020 (the latest available data).

But the number of hate crimes recorded by police forces has increased. This data shows there has been a 256% increase from 43,800 hate crimes recorded in England and Wales in 2011/12 to 155,800 hate crimes in 2021/22. (Before 2011/12, published statistics only showed racist incidents recorded by the police). 

There are several reasons for a difference between these two data sets. The CSEW only records household crimes and excludes those committed against businesses and “victimless” crimes. It also does not include all crimes that may have had a hate component, such as homicides and public order offences like rioting or drunk and disorderly behaviours, which constitute over 50% of police recorded hate crimes. It also only surveys people aged 16 or over. 

The government website notes that the increase in hate crimes recorded by the police could be due to growing awareness of hate crime and improvements to crime recording. On the other hand, not all people who experience hate crime may report it to the police. 

The CSEW is generally considered a more reliable indicator of long-term crime trends. 

Nurses 

The post claims “33,000 nurses leave the NHS each year”. Data analysed by the Nuffield Trust shows that this is broadly true with an average of around 32,000 nurses leaving the NHS in England each year between 2010 and 2022. 

While around 40,400 nurses left the NHS in England between June 2021 and June 2022 (the highest number since 2010), a record number of 44,500 nurses also joined the NHS over the same period. These figures look at the headcount number of individual staff joining and leaving, rather than accounting for things like how many hours they work. It also includes people leaving for reasons such as going on maternity leave.

Even when the Nuffield Trust included the role of temporary staff, it found that 17,200 nursing posts were unfilled in a single day in May 2021 which it said was not definitive but gave “a broad indication of the scale of temporary staff use and unfilled posts”. 

The demand for nurses is also increasing more quickly than the growing numbers entering the profession. This is shown in the 46,800 job vacancies for nurses as of June 2022. 

Overall the latest figures from NHS Digital show that there are around 52,000 more full time equivalent nurses and health visitors working in the NHS in England in March 2023 than the same month in 2010.

Full Fact has written several fact checks about the NHS recently, including claims about junior doctors’ pay and changes to GP numbers. 

Image courtesy of UK government