Is the UK’s defence spending increasing?

At Prime Minister’s Questions last week, the Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and the Leader of the Opposition Kemi Badenoch MP appeared to make contradictory claims about the UK’s defence spending.

Mr Starmer twice quoted a figure of £270 billion when talking about the increase in defence spending over the course of this Parliament, while Mrs Badenoch claimed the government “isn’t” spending more money on defence.

The UK’s defence spending is set to increase both as a proportion of GDP and in cash terms, contrary to Mrs Badenoch’s claim. But it’s important to note the figure Mr Starmer used refers to the total Ministry of Defence (MoD) budget over the course of the Parliament, not the increase in spending.

How much is defence spending set to rise by?

Mr Starmer said “Labour […] is delivering the biggest boost to defence spending since the Cold War, £270 billion over the course of this Parliament”, and used the same figure a few minutes later, saying: “In relation to defence spend, obviously we are increasing it to 2.6% of GDP, that’s £270 billion over the Parliament.”

To be clear, £270 billion is roughly the total the government expects to spend on defence over the course of the Parliament, not the cumulative total of year-on-year increases. Totalling the planned MoD spends for each of the years between 2025/26 and 2028/29 gives a figure of £272.2 billion.

The UK is estimated to have spent 2.3% of its GDP on defence in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025, according to NATO. This type of ‘defence spending’ refers to spending that falls under NATO’s broader definition. This includes some costs that sit outside the MoD’s budget, such as armed forces pensions and the Integrated Security Fund.

The government has committed to increasing defence spending to 2.6% of GDP by April 2027.

What about the claim the government is cutting defence spending by £2.6 billion?

Mrs Badenoch claimed the government is “cutting defence spending by £2.6 billion from the MoD budget this year”.

This appears to be based on a report from the Telegraph in October 2025, in which the paper said it had been passed a “leaked MoD internal spending estimate from the summer” that “reveals the projected overspend” for 2025/26 of around £2.6 billion, including £1.6 billion of day-to-day spending and £1 billion of capital spending.

The Telegraph said that some of the causes for this reported projected overspend were inflation, Armed Forces pay increases and the impact of the increase in National Insurance employer contributions, and consequently “Army, Navy and Air Force chiefs are being told to offer up areas that can be cut”.

When we asked the MoD if it had indeed projected a £2.6 billion overspend this year, it told us the figure doesn’t reflect the MoD’s current financial position, without being more specific on what the current position is. However, even if the Telegraph’s figure is correct and the MoD has had to cut planned spending in order to meet its overall budget, that doesn’t mean that budget itself was cut.

And Mrs Badenoch was wrong to say the government isn’t “spending more money on defence”. The MoD’s budget for 2025/26 is £62.2 billion—an increase of around 3.2% in cash terms compared to 2024/25. And the most recent analysis we’ve seen from the National Audit Office suggests the MoD’s budget is increasing this financial year in real terms too, by £0.3 billion.

The MoD’s budget is set to increase further over the next three financial years—by an average of 3.8% in real terms according to the June 2025 Spending Review.

The UK’s defence spending increased between 2024 and 2025 if you look at NATO’s broader definition too.

In cash terms, it was estimated to be £65.8 billion in the 2024 calendar year and £70.2 billion in 2025, while in constant 2021 prices it was £56.6 billion in 2024 and £59.1 billion in 2025. We don’t yet have figures for 2026.

We contacted Downing Street and Mrs Badenoch’s office for comment but did not receive a response.