Minister makes misleading comparison on prison capacity

Speaking about prison capacity on Sky News earlier this month, housing secretary Steve Reed MP said: “They only built, the previous government, 500 places in 14 years. We’ve already built two and a half thousand in 15 months.”

But this isn’t a like-for-like comparison. Mr Reed appears to have used [3:55] a figure for the net increase in prison capacity in England and Wales under Conservative-led governments between 2010 and 2024, and the gross increase in new prison places under Labour. The former accounts for new places built under the Conservatives, as well as those taken out of commission, whereas the figure he gives for Labour’s record only includes the new places built.

We’ve heard other ministers use the 500 figure, as well as the Labour party itself, without necessarily making it clear that this is a net, rather than gross, number.

Ministers should correct false or misleading claims made in their capacity as public representatives. We have written to Mr Reed about his comments and will update this article should we receive a response.

What does the data show?

Transparency data from the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) confirms that the net increase in prison capacity between 2010 and 2024 was 482, which, when rounded, matches the 500 Mr Reed and other ministers have cited. But the MoJ also states that more than 13,000 new places were built during this time.

Over the same period, around 12,500 places were closed. This figure includes prison cells that were planned to close permanently due to dilapidation but were subsequently reopened after being refurbished. It also includes places reconfigured for use in different parts of the estate, such as immigration detention.

So it’s not correct to claim the previous government “only built” 500 places, as Mr Reed put it.

More importantly, it’s misleading to use this figure in comparison with the 2,500 he claims Labour have built in 15 months. That’s because the 2,500 figure refers to new places built under Labour, rather than the net change in prison capacity, which would allow for a like-for-like comparison.

The net increase under Labour is 445 not 2,500. When Labour came to power, the usable operational prison capacity of England and Wales stood at 88,864. As of 17 November 2025, this figure has risen to 89,309.

According to the MoJ, some accommodation has been taken out of use for essential maintenance and safety work, while some new prison capacity has yet to open. So the net increase is considerably less than 2,500.

The MoJ warns against using new build and closure figures to fully judge how many places are being created in total: “This is because prison places that were expected to close due to dilapidations feature as closures in the ‘places closed’ data, but not as places subsequently reopened in the ‘places built’ data.” Operational capacity figures, released on a weekly basis, are more likely to give an accurate comparison of the size of the prison estate at any particular moment in time, although they can fluctuate, for example due to essential maintenance work.

As opposition MPs have pointed out, of the 2,500 places Labour claims to have built since forming a government, about 1,500 are at HMP Millsike, which sits alongside HMP Full Sutton and opened in March 2025. However, construction work on the project began in 2022 under the Conservative administration.

Building pledge

The government has pledged to build 14,000 “extra” prison places, and four new prisons, by 2031. These plans suffered a setback in September 2024 when a major contractor involved in the building work, ISG, collapsed.

Even if the government prison building plans are achieved, the number of cells being taken out of service for refurbishment could potentially outstrip the number of new places being created.

A March 2025 report by the Public Accounts Committee and an earlier report by the National Audit Office stated that HM Prison and Probation Service has committed to taking non-fire safe cells out of use by 2027. As of March 2024, 23,000 prison places did not meet safety standards and are being refurbished at the rate of 4,000 per year. Any places not reaching the required standard by this time will no longer be available for prisoners.

Alex Hewson of the Prison Reform Trust told Full Fact: “Part of the challenge is that there is still a significant backlog of maintenance in the prison estate, whilst at the same time we have more people in prison than the system is designed to accommodate. This means that places are forced to remain in use, which should have been taken out of service.

“Emergency release programmes over the last year have allowed for some breathing space to refurbish existing cells (which are much quicker to turn around than building new wings, blocks or prisons), but the collapse of ISG hasn’t helped matters.”

The MoJ says a total of £7 billion will have been invested between 2024-25 and 2029-30 to deliver the 14,000 new prison places by 2031. The places are expected to be fully operational by 2032.

However, recent projections estimate the total adult prison population will increase to reach between 95,700 and 105,200 by March 2029, with a central estimate of 100,800. By November 2028 the adult male population alone is projected to be around 95,600 but the useable capacity of the male prison estate is projected to be around 89,000.