Statistics watchdog challenges Badenoch over welfare claim after Full Fact intervention

The interim chair of the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA), Penny Young, has written to the Leader of the Opposition, Kemi Badenoch, about a claim in the Conservatives’ Alternative King’s Speech that “for the first time ever, the total welfare bill is now higher than total receipts from income tax”.

As we said in our fact check on the subject in May, this isn’t true. Welfare payments have been higher than income tax receipts for many years, and the position is expected to reverse this year.

The UKSA also said it was worried that the Conservatives were giving the impression that “welfare” was mainly about sickness and out-of-work benefits, when “approximately 55% of social security expenditure is spent on pensioners”.

“We are concerned that the inaccuracy of the ‘first time ever’ element of the claim,” Ms Young’s letter said, “combined with the absence of this contextual explanation, could lead to misunderstanding among members of the public about welfare spending.”

The UKSA took up the case after Full Fact wrote to it sharing our fact check.

Where else have we seen this claim?

While the UKSA’s letter to Mrs Badenoch focused on the claim in the Alternative King’s Speech, we’ve heard the same claim repeatedly in recent weeks, and have written about it several times.

Mrs Badenoch herself said at Prime Minister’s Questions on 29 April that “for the first time ever, we are now spending more on welfare than we earn in income tax”.

We’re also seen versions of the claim made or shared by several other Conservative MPs, including shadow work and pensions secretary Helen Whateley and Opposition Assistant Whip Katie Lam, as well as the Reform UK MP Robert Jenrick.

And we’ve seen the same claim mentioned in the media, with the Daily Mail and City AM both making corrections after Full Fact got in touch, as was noted in the UK Statistics Authority’s letter.

What have the Conservatives said in response?

We approached the Conservatives for comment, but have so far had no reply. We’ll update this article if we hear back.

A Conservative spokesman has reportedly told the PA News Agency that the party acknowledged the claim was inaccurate and planned to correct its Alternative King's Speech document. This did not appear to have happened as of 4pm on Thursday (25 June).

The Conservative spokesman also reportedly told the PA News Agency: “I don’t think Kemi has ever said it.” We have urged Mrs Badenoch to correct the claim she made at Prime Minister’s Questions as well as the claim in the Alternative King’s Speech.